A-share Investors Should Learn to Be Friends with Time

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The concept of the "slow bull market" often escapes the understanding of many investors, particularly within the A-share market in China. However, a closer examination of historical trends in mature global stock markets reveals a steady upward trajectory over time, despite the inevitable fluctuations. These ebbs and flows, characterized as "bull and bear markets," can be viewed as mere interruptions within the broader narrative of a gradual increase in value—what can truly be defined as a "slow bull."

At its core, investing can be thought of as an intricate interplay with time. When we invest in instruments such as bonds, we are trading our time for the promise of interest income. Similarly, equity investment revolves around the forecasted future earnings of a company. The price of a stock reflects the discounted value of its future earnings, translating to a direct investment in the company’s longevity and success. Therefore, buying shares is essentially an investment in the future of that enterprise.

The distance to the future can often hinge on an investor's judgment skills and risk tolerance. Consider the volatility of tech stocks compared to that of traditional industries. The primary reason for the more substantial price swings in technology equity lies in the relative stability of earnings in established sectors versus the inherent uncertainties surrounding tech firms' future profitability. For traditional industries, forecasts are easier to compute, leading to lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. Lower P/E ratios tend to attract more conservative investors, who typically favor investments with predictable return timelines. In contrast, the unpredictability surrounding technology companies translates to significant fluctuations in stock prices and P/E ratios.

This characteristic of stock markets indicates that a genuine bull market is unlikely to see stocks triple in value within a single year. The probability of a company's earnings multiplying by three in the span of a year approaches zero. Stocks that exhibit such rapid appreciation typically indicate a bubble—prone to sharp corrections, often returning to their original levels, if not lower.

Conversely, the notion of a stock market growing threefold over a decade presents a far more compelling reality. Over a ten-year span, a company's current research and development efforts may metamorphose into a sought-after product, transitioning profit projections into realized earnings. Consequently, while a company may be trading at a 20x P/E ratio today, a tripled stock price in a decade might still maintain a P/E ratio below 20, illustrating the slow evolution of true wealth in the markets. In this context, a genuine bull market can only be characterized as a "slow bull," where stock prices rise in tandem with company performance.

So, how can the A-share market in China cultivate this "slow bull" trend? The answer largely lies in stringent governance practices. Implementing rigorous regulations and policies that favor robust corporate behavior will entice businesses that are truly committed to growth and profit-sharing with smaller investors. Crucially, it is the responsibility of regulatory bodies to create an environment that drives out opportunistic major shareholders aiming to extract value without contributing to the market.

A proposal worth considering is the establishment of a "Major Shareholder Equity Transfer Platform" across A-share exchanges. This platform would allow major stakeholders to transparently list their shares while ensuring information about these transactions is distinctly marked in market displays. Such an initiative could effectively streamline negotiations between major shareholders and larger investors, decreasing the likelihood of inflated stock prices exploited by those looking for rapid cash-outs.

Implementing this strategy would yield several benefits. Firstly, it would shield small investors from potential price manipulation by major shareholders, safeguarding their legitimate interests. Secondly, the pricing mechanism arising from negotiations between large investors and departing major shareholders could provide valuable insights into a company's genuine market value, further protecting smaller investors.

Moreover, the conditions within the A-share market are particularly favorable for establishing a "slow bull." A prevailing belief in the commitment of Chinese financial regulators to uphold principles of public interest, alongside ongoing reforms of stock market rules, lays a solid foundation for a slow, steady upward momentum. Every advancement made in market reform strengthens the possibility of sustained growth.

The emergence of high-quality production capabilities will undeniably inject fresh opportunities into the A-share market, continuing over the long term. This evolution aligns with China's focus on high-quality economic development, expanding the potential for wealth generation.

Furthermore, as developed countries grapple with the challenges of "hollowing out" their economies, China's robust manufacturing and supply chain capabilities remain a beacon of valuable assets that attract global investors. The A-share market stands to gain tremendously as it serves as the abode for these assets. The ongoing integration of industries in China, coupled with the strengthening connections between leading enterprises and their supply chains, alongside technological advancements, positions the A-share market as a formidable collector of high-quality manufacturing assets. This foundation will ultimately support long-lasting value within the market.

Thus, it is essential for investors to adopt a patient mindset, learning to befriend time. The journey within the financial markets is a marathon, not a sprint, and understanding the core principles of investment, governance, and market dynamics will pave the way for a flourishing financial future.

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