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The concept of the "slow bull market" often escapes the understanding of many investors, particularly within the A-share market in ChinaHowever, a closer examination of historical trends in mature global stock markets reveals a steady upward trajectory over time, despite the inevitable fluctuationsThese ebbs and flows, characterized as "bull and bear markets," can be viewed as mere interruptions within the broader narrative of a gradual increase in value—what can truly be defined as a "slow bull."
At its core, investing can be thought of as an intricate interplay with timeWhen we invest in instruments such as bonds, we are trading our time for the promise of interest incomeSimilarly, equity investment revolves around the forecasted future earnings of a companyThe price of a stock reflects the discounted value of its future earnings, translating to a direct investment in the company’s longevity and successTherefore, buying shares is essentially an investment in the future of that enterprise.
The distance to the future can often hinge on an investor's judgment skills and risk toleranceConsider the volatility of tech stocks compared to that of traditional industriesThe primary reason for the more substantial price swings in technology equity lies in the relative stability of earnings in established sectors versus the inherent uncertainties surrounding tech firms' future profitabilityFor traditional industries, forecasts are easier to compute, leading to lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratiosLower P/E ratios tend to attract more conservative investors, who typically favor investments with predictable return timelinesIn contrast, the unpredictability surrounding technology companies translates to significant fluctuations in stock prices and P/E ratios.
This characteristic of stock markets indicates that a genuine bull market is unlikely to see stocks triple in value within a single yearThe probability of a company's earnings multiplying by three in the span of a year approaches zero
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Stocks that exhibit such rapid appreciation typically indicate a bubble—prone to sharp corrections, often returning to their original levels, if not lower.
Conversely, the notion of a stock market growing threefold over a decade presents a far more compelling realityOver a ten-year span, a company's current research and development efforts may metamorphose into a sought-after product, transitioning profit projections into realized earningsConsequently, while a company may be trading at a 20x P/E ratio today, a tripled stock price in a decade might still maintain a P/E ratio below 20, illustrating the slow evolution of true wealth in the marketsIn this context, a genuine bull market can only be characterized as a "slow bull," where stock prices rise in tandem with company performance.
So, how can the A-share market in China cultivate this "slow bull" trend? The answer largely lies in stringent governance practicesImplementing rigorous regulations and policies that favor robust corporate behavior will entice businesses that are truly committed to growth and profit-sharing with smaller investorsCrucially, it is the responsibility of regulatory bodies to create an environment that drives out opportunistic major shareholders aiming to extract value without contributing to the market.
A proposal worth considering is the establishment of a "Major Shareholder Equity Transfer Platform" across A-share exchangesThis platform would allow major stakeholders to transparently list their shares while ensuring information about these transactions is distinctly marked in market displaysSuch an initiative could effectively streamline negotiations between major shareholders and larger investors, decreasing the likelihood of inflated stock prices exploited by those looking for rapid cash-outs.
Implementing this strategy would yield several benefitsFirstly, it would shield small investors from potential price manipulation by major shareholders, safeguarding their legitimate interests
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